Surviving on Sunday

Week 10

2010-11-12T11:10:00.000-05:00

This week is a 2 pick week. Lots of small lines and I have very little confidence in the games this week. I dont have the future lines up yet, but maybe Ill add it tomorrow night.

NYG
I am a Giant fan and am really nervous about this game. It has the feeling of a very low scoring game. Yes, the Cowboys are imploding, but with the changes this week, practicing in pads plus the Giants OL injuries, injury to Smith, Nicks disruptions with UNC. By far the biggest line, but risky.

IND
Surprisingly, Im nervous about this game for Indy. I thought the Bengals played well vs PIT and started running more, which is their strength (someone please tell Marvin Lewis). If I really needed to take IND, Id take them, but I would like to stay away. Lets see.

TB
Out of TBs 5 wins, 4 have been late comebacks. This team is bad enough to be down in the 4th quarter in all but 1 of their games. They have been more lucky than good. I might still have to take them though.

SF
I think SF is a solid home team. Not much to add.

PIT
The only game left with a FG+ favorite, but I dont suggest PIT this week.

All other games are more 50/50 games (including ARI vs SEA)

Right now I am leaning toward TB and SF. I have a feeling I will be sweating it out on Sunday.

Week 9

2010-11-05T11:28:00.000-04:00

Now in the 2nd Half pool, here are my thoughts on this week-

ATL
No real take on them this week. I like ATL coming off the bye and at home. They should win comfortably.

Looking forward after this week, the Falcons have an interesting schedule. They have STL, SEA, CAR and TB all on the road. And BAL, GB, NO and CAR at home.

I see only 2 games I would feel comfortable taking them. The first is in STL week 11 (even though they will only be a couple point favorite) because the other games are outdoor games in the winter. The other is home for CAR in week 17. Of course, the problem with week 17 is that we dont know if the Falcons will be playing for anything.

My plan is to save them for week 17 when I need 3 picks. Week 11 should have more than 2 solid options.

MIN
I am not in love with the Vikings this week. They havent been playing well at all, offensively or defensively. Yes Arizona is possibly the worst team in the league, especially on the road. But Im not sold.

The Vikings have BUF in week 13 that I think I would rather take.   Hopefully the Vikings will straighten themselves out by then.

GB
I am nervous about this game. The Cowboys defense played terribly last week, but I give them a pass because defensively it is tougher to get up for a game when your season is over. The offense played just fine. There were 2 early catchable balls that bounced off the receivers for INTs. Without those, the Cowboys could have easily won. Yes, that was at home and this is on the road. But I think the Boys will be pumped up for this game. They dont have to worry about defending the run just the pass. Now with Kitna getting more practice, this game gets me really nervous.

Looking forward, the Pack really dont have a great schedule. Home games are SF, NYG and CHI. None of them are gimme games. Hopefully I will feel more comfortable with one of those than I do this week.

NYG
As a Giants fan, them playing in SEA brings back flashbacks of the drubbing in 2006 (the game started 35-0). But, hopefully this game will start and turn out differently. That was coming off an emotional division game, flying cross country and just not prepared. This is coming off a bye. I actually would have liked this game better had Hasselbeck been playing. One of my rules is to always go against a QB the week after he gets a concussion. Stupid NFL is trying to shut down players after a concussion. Who do they think they are? If QBs want to play, and lose, let them! (Side note: I think this is the 7th backup QB the Giants will face. Claussen, Collins, Hanie, Hill, Stanton, Kitna, now Whitehurst)

Looking forward, the Giants have a home game vs JAC in a semi-weak Week 12.

NO
Are we sure they are good? They are getting a lot of respect after barely beating a Claussen-led Panthers team at home. Now on the road where they arent as good against a team with a better QB (I think Moore is serviceable. Claussen, not so much right now). I wouldnt be surprised at all if this game comes down to the final minutes.

Looking forward, the Saints have home games vs SEA, SEA and TB all teams that should be regressing soon.

NE
Mangini vs Bellichick. Should be a fun game especially with Cleveland coming off a bye. No chance I take NE here.

Looking forward, NE doesnt have an easy schedule, but the game @BUF in week 16 is during a 3 pick week, so I have them penciled in for that week.

NYJ
The Jets are a far superior team. I can see them dominating the game but somehow Detroit hangs around. I think the Jets will pull it out, but last year they were streaky with two 3 game losing streaks. I think they are better than that this year, and will pull it out, but you never know.

Looking forward, the Jets have CIN and BAL at home. Saving them.

Other Notes
KC has won in OAK each of the last 7 years
IND has been an underdog at an NFC team once in the last 7 years

PICK
For me, it really comes down to:

GB vs DAL this week and MIN vs BUF in week 13 OR
MIN vs ARI this week and GB vs SF in week 13

Option 1 is probably better, but the I hate the Cowboys. Taking MIN.

2nd Half Pool

2010-11-04T15:06:00.000-04:00

I am going to change the way I do these posts a bit, not caring as much about what other people are picking and just pick the best team for that week. I will probably be rambling more as well.

Rules:
Week 9: 1 Team
Weeks 10-15: 2 Teams
Weeks 16-17: 3 Teams

19 Teams Total

Here is my future value sheet which I update every week:

Team	Week 9	Week 10	Week 11	Week 12	Week 13	Week 14	Week 15	Week 16	Week 17
ARI		2			-2.5	-2.5		0
ATL	-8.5	-2		-2.5	1	6		-1	-8.5
BAL	-5	2.5	7.5	-6	0		-2	5.5	-7
BUF						-2
CAR							-3
CHI	3	0
CIN			-6				-3.5
CLE				-3
DAL			-1
DEN				-2.5
DET		2.5			-2
GB	-8.5				-6.5	3.5		-2.5	-6.5
HOU		5.5		-3		-1		5.5	-8.5
IND	2.5	-10		-5	-13	1	-14	6.5	-6
JAC			-3
KC		4.5	-9		-6.5		1	-1	-3
MIA		-3	-4.5	2	-7		-7.5	-6
MIN	-8		-3		-9.5	-1	-5.5		1
NE	4.5		-1.5	5.5	-3.5	6.5	-5.5	8.5	-6.5
NO	6.5		-9.5	7	6	-9.5			-7
NYG	6.5	-13.5		-12.5	-5		-3.5
NYJ	4	7	-6.5	-9		-3		3	-9.5
OAK	-3					1	-3.5
PHI			-1	1.5	-3	3		-3	-8.5
PIT	4.5	-3	-7.5	10		-9.5	-3	-11.5	6
SD	3		-7.5		-7	-6.5	7	3.5	3.5
SEA				-3	-6		-1		-3
SF		-3	-1	3		-4.5			-6.5
STL			-1.5					-1
TB		-5					-1.5	-3
TEN			-5		-9.5		-3	1
WAS		-2		-2.5		-4	2.5	5	-1.5
Division
Conference
Interconference
Number with a - in front means a home favorite. Ex -3 means 3 point home favorite. I will be back tomorrow with my ramblings.

Down Goes My Season

2010-11-03T12:36:00.000-04:00

I got too tempted by the zero future value for the Cowboys and lost last week. While I am always disappointed when I lose, this one is really bitter, because I did the research and knew history said JAC had a great shot at the upset. NE was the clear pick of the week. Here is how I had the rest of my season lined up-

Week 9- ATL vs TB
Week 10- IND vs CIN
Week 10- HOU @ JAC
Week 11- SD vs DEN
Week 11- KC vs ARI
Week 12- PIT @ BUF
Week 12- BAL vs TB
Week 13- GB vs SF
Week 13- TEN vs JAC
Week 14- NO vs STL
Week 14- WAS vs TB
Week 15- MIA vs BUF

I dont know how many weeks would be double weeks, but I planned on week 14. The final 2 weeks of the season would be a crap shoot with the following teams PHI, CHI, OAK, BUF, CLE, CIN, CAR, TB, DAL, SF, JAC, STL.

I will post tomorrow on the 2nd Half pool I just joined and starts this week.

Week 8

2010-10-28T11:45:00.001-04:00

KC
This is an interesting spot for the Chiefs. They are the only TD favorite of the week, but 50%+ are taking them and still they have decent future value with 2 more home TD+ favorite games, though those weeks have several other options.
A couple of things concern me with the Chiefs. 1. Last week vs JAC, they refused to throw the ball vs the worst rated pass defense. The Bills do have the worst run and pass D in the league so I guess whatever Haley does will be ok, but I don't have faith in him. 2. The Chiefs are coming off a 22 point win, have a winless opponent this week and might be looking ahead to a showdown with the Raiders next week. This is not a team that can overlook opponents.

DAL
This might be the only chance to take the Cowboys the rest of the year. All their future value is gone without Romo. They are still -6.5 and are being taken by a fraction of the # of entries on the Chiefs.
I like the fact that they are coming off a home division loss but I am nervous about both Kitna and their psychology. Nervous or not, they are my pick this week (though things might change when NE-MIN line comes out).

***Now reconsidering. I ran numbers on teams that lose by 17+ on the road, now on the road again. They do very well as dogs by 6-7.

NYJ
I have already used the Jets, but I dont like this game anyway. Coming off a bye now playing an inter-conference game scares me. There will be other times to take them.

NE
They have very little future value, but there is no line yet.
Here is a stat though- In the last 7 years, MIN has been a road dog of 3+ in an interconference game 9 times. They are 0-9.
I dont have stats on how teams do coming off a west coast win. I should get on that. Id be curious to see if there is a hangover effect.

IND
Monday night division game with a 5.5 home spread is a 50/50 game. The COlts have way too much future value to take them here.

STL
Wow, people jumping on the bandwagon. I dont see why this is more than a 50/50 game, but good luck to those who do.

--

Season Recap [Rules- 1 pick through Week 9. Double Picks thereafter. Entry 2 is more aggressive]

Entry 1- NYG, PHI, MIN, NYJ, ~~CIN~~

Entry 2- ARI, DEN, MIN, NYJ, DET, NYG, SEA

	Team	Picks
1	Chiefs	50.7%
2	Cowboys	12.4%
3	Jets	10.3%
4	Patriots	8.7%
5	Colts	5.8%
6	Rams	5.2%
7	Redskins	1.2%
8	Raiders	1.2%

Week 7

2010-10-21T13:29:00.000-04:00

BAL
Teams that are big favorites going into their bye have been dominant, and I would expect BAL to be the same. They have 2 games with great future value, but those games are in Weeks 11 and 12 when there are plenty of other games. But, if almost half the league is taking BAL, save them.
(My personal entry used DEN, NYG, NYJ who are big favorites in Week 12, so I need to save them for that week anyway.)

NO
Another big favorite, though I am not sure why they are giving so many points. They have only played 1 good game so far this year. Nevertheless, as a survivor play, they are a solid choice, especially with half the entries of BAL. They have 4 more great games though. I think thats too much value to be taking them now.

DEN
A surprisingly big favorite this week. If you need to make double picks at all you will need to take this team either this week or week 12 (home for STL). I would wait. The Raiders have been a TD+ underdog in Denver the last 6 years and pulled off wins 3 times. That would make me really nervous (though I took DEN already).

KC
I still havent seen a line for them, but assuming a 7+ spread, this is a solid pick. They only have one more 7+ game, next week. While next week is pretty scarce, there is that Dal-JAC game that has a big line too. This is my tentative pick right now since I still have DAL for next week.

SEA
This is a very risky game. Yes, the Seahawks have been great at home, but this game scares me with the coming off a rare road win and ARI coming off a bye. The Seahawks have almost zero future value, but unless you have used most of the options above, I would stay away.

Season Recap [Rules- 1 pick through Week 9. Double Picks thereafter. Entry 2 is more aggressive]

Entry 1- NYG, PHI, MIN, NYJ, ~~CIN~~

Entry 2- ARI, DEN, MIN, NYJ, DET, NYG

Team

Picks

1

Ravens

45.9%

2

Saints

21.9%

3

Broncos

15.8%

4

Chiefs

8.4%

5

Seahawks

4.0%

6

Falcons

1.6%

7

49ers

0.6%

8

Buccaneers

0.4%

9

Steelers

0.4%

10

Cowboys

0.3%

11

Patriots

0.2%

12

Bears

0.1%

13

Titans

0.1%

14

Giants

0.1%

15

Redskins

0.1%

16

Bills

0.1%

Team	Picks
1	Ravens	45.9%
2	Saints	21.9%
3	Broncos	15.8%
4	Chiefs	8.4%
5	Seahawks	4.0%
6	Falcons	1.6%
7	49ers	0.6%
8	Buccaneers	0.4%
9	Steelers	0.4%
10	Cowboys	0.3%
11	Patriots	0.2%
12	Bears	0.1%
13	Titans	0.1%
14	Giants	0.1%
15	Redskins	0.1%
16	Bills	0.1%