See ya next year

This was the tentative plan from Week 10

10 TB +2.5
11 Jax -6.5
11 LAC -4.5
12 Atlanta -6
12 Pit -8
13 LAC -6
13 Ten -6.5
14 Buf -7.5
14 Dal -5
15 Philly -6.5
15 Det -6.5
16 KC -9.5
16 Chi -6.5
16
17 Seattle -6
17
17

Week 11

Double pick time. 

Our board:

survivorgrid.com

The P% column is only a guide, it will probably be very low because this is based on single game weeks.  For instance, the Steelers are 5% here but were over 10% last night.  While I dont think it'll be a 2:1 ratio, lets take our best guesses as to what the percentages will be for the top win percentage teams.  Anyone not on the list will probably be minimal.

KC - 65%

NO - 15%

JAX - 50%

PIT - 10%

NE - 8%

PHI - 2 %

LAC - 10%

Given these numbers, and our teams left-

JAX was my original thought for this week, but if they will hover around 50% that would make me want to save them.  It doesnt leave us with great options.

PHI should probably be skipped.  They are our #1 strategic team, with them taken on 88% of entries.

It leaves us with a bunch of toss up type games

LAC-BUF

DET-CHI

SEA-ATL

DEN-CIN [bengals already taken]

HOU-ARI [cardinals already taken]

MIA-TB [bucs already taken]

GB-BAL [ravens already taken]

We can go with the crowd on KC or JAX and have a better shot to move on, or we can pick 2 toss ups and try to move on while everyone else uses future value.

Week 10

Super bummed after taking SEA last week, one entry left standing.

On to our last hope...Double picks starting next week

survivorgrid.com

The obvious team is PIT.  If we were in a league with 20 people left, Id take them because the season probably wont go the distance.  But in a league with 400+ people, even with double picks soon, I expect this to go 7 or 8 weeks.  And that would mean taking 14-17 more teams, with a slim possibility its 12-13.

So, the question is, do we need to take a game like NYJ-TB or NYG-SF?

Forgetting schedule, here are the teams .500 or better that we have left:

Tier 1 [% Taken]

KC [7]

PHI [86]

PIT [54]

Tier 2

ATL [18]

BUF [24]

DAL [32]

DET [1]

JAX [24]

MIA [6]

SEA [84]

TEN [39]

Tier 3

GB [55]

There are weeks to take a below .500 team with no future value.  This may be one of them

Week 9

Practically everyone survived last week, and that may be the case with 2 main picks this week...

Week 9

surviviorgrid.com

Thats a pretty staggering number on HOU. Odds are super slim on an upset, but its happened twice this season already.  Pretty much have to stay away from this game and hold HOU for Week 11/14/17

NO # is also really high.  At those numbers it may be our most probable big upset to root for.

Everyone else is pretty much fair game to take.

Maybe TEN or LAR?

Week 8

Chalk week for the most part in Week 7. 

Six teams on a bye this week, but plenty of solid favorites.

survivorgrid.com

This is starting to come into play as well:

Philly, already taken by 68% and another 20% this week would be a great team to save.  They are only home once for a 6 week span of week 10 through week 15 so we'll have to be selective where we take them.

Cincy at 30% is just way to high for my liking.  Makes sense given theve only been selected 11% of the time so far, but I just dont agree with Vegas on this line. At all.

Vikings are a worse EV than Cincy.  Hoping for an overseas upset!

NE/KC are possibilities because they are taken by so few this week, but both have tons of future value.

Is NO the pick?  That Jets game in Week 15 would look so good if we get there and still have the Saints.  But we still need to get there...

Try to sneak by with an under performing Falcons team?

A lot to think about this week.

Week 7

Last week saw 2 huge favorties go down in shocking fashion, while the percentage play (Titans) worked out.  Lets move on to this week and try to salvage the season...

surviviorgrid.com

Two huge favorites in DAL and TEN.  They both have enough future value to stay away and hope the short week/travel/pre-bye bites the Titans

All the other choices are mid 60% crapshoots which I just dont love.  They are all in similar range Win %, Probability% and all have at least a little future value.

Id lean toward MIN/JAX/MIA

Week 6

Last week did not disappoint, with the favorites being only 60% to win.

This week is a little more clear and I dont see a lot of eliminations. While I don't love looking ahead early in the season, we should have enough choices this week that we can factor it in.

surviviorgrid.com (OFP %)

There are a clear top 6 favorites this week.  Taking a peek at their future value:

These lines can take huge swings, which is why I dont love using it in week 6.   Will WAS home for NYG be -4.5 when we get to week 12? It could easily be -9.5   All the IND lines are out of whack once Luck comes back...

Straight up, I think Denver has the easiest time this week, its tricky because they are over 30% and have that Jets game in week 14 where its the one home game in 5 weeks for the team. 

TEN is the smart survivor pick, but need to check on Mariotta. Id be too nervous to pick that game.

The other 4 are similar to me. 

Thoughts?

Week 5

Shocker with NE going down last week.  Its too bad they weren't taken by more people.  ATL having 15-20% was a solid take down though.

Week 5 scares me a lot.  The best bets are only 60% or so to win the game.  Hold on tight...

From survivorgrid.com

PIT and PHI with massive percentage numbers, so we should try to stay away.

Given the top heavy week, I wouldn't bother with 1% taken vs 6% taken, and just go with better odds to win. 

CIN
NYG
DAL
OAK
MIN
TEN
DET

are just not teams that I trust. 

Gotta find one of these teams to lean on and hope PIT loses.

Week 4

Big elimination week last week, with most of the mid tier teams getting bounced, and NE/GB escaping.

NE is a great option this week. Has tons of future value though

IND way too popular. Skip.

ATL a mediocre bet with 17%.  GB was a better option.

KC

DAL

ARI

are the 3 top plays, percentage wise.

Week 3

Only the fools who took Cincy got knocked out last week. Almost celebrated an Indy over Arizona win, which wouldve been sweet.

On to this week..

NE and GB are too popular.

Top picks according to the numbers:

CAR
PHI
-
PIT
MIA

I think this week may be a huge elimination week.

survivorgrid.com

Week 2

4 of the top 5 made it through Week 1, and unless you dared go against Tom Coughlin, you made it out alive.

On to Week 2...

Seattle and Oakland are too popular.

Top picks for the week are:

TB
CAR
BAL
-
NE
CIN
KC
PIT

Best bet for an upset is Colts over Cardinals

AAAAAAND WERE BACK!!! WEEK 1

Going to keep it short and sweet.  Pretty much all you need to know in these 2 pictures.

Top 5 picks are:

Buffalo
Carolina
Dallas
Houston
LA Rams

Week 10

This week is a 2 pick week.  Lots of small lines and I have very little confidence in the games this week.  I dont have the future lines up yet, but maybe Ill add it tomorrow night.

NYG
I am a Giant fan and am really nervous about this game.  It has the feeling of a very low scoring game.  Yes, the Cowboys are imploding, but with the changes this week, practicing in pads plus the Giants OL injuries, injury to Smith, Nicks disruptions with UNC.  By far the biggest line, but risky.

IND
Surprisingly, Im nervous about this game for Indy.  I thought the Bengals played well vs PIT and started running more, which is their strength (someone please tell Marvin Lewis).  If I really needed to take IND, Id take them, but I would like to stay away.  Lets see.

TB
Out of TBs 5 wins, 4 have been late comebacks. This team is bad enough to be down in the 4th quarter in all but 1 of their games.  They have been more lucky than good.  I might still have to take them though.

SF
I think SF is a solid home team.  Not much to add. 

PIT
The only game left with a FG+ favorite, but I dont suggest PIT this week.

All other games are more 50/50 games (including ARI vs SEA)

Right now I am leaning toward TB and SF.  I have a feeling I will be sweating it out on Sunday.

Week 9

Now in the 2nd Half pool, here are my thoughts on this week-

ATL
No real take on them this week.  I like ATL coming off the bye and at home.  They should win comfortably.

Looking forward after this week, the Falcons have an interesting schedule.  They have STL, SEA, CAR and TB all on the road.  And BAL, GB, NO and CAR at home.  

I see only 2 games I would feel comfortable taking them.  The first is in STL week 11 (even though they will only be a couple point favorite) because the other games are outdoor games in the winter.  The other is home for CAR in week 17.  Of course, the problem with week 17 is that we dont know if the Falcons will be playing for anything.  

My plan is to save them for week 17 when I need 3 picks.  Week 11 should have more than 2 solid options.

MIN
I am not in love with the Vikings this week.  They havent been playing well at all, offensively or defensively.  Yes Arizona is possibly the worst team in the league, especially on the road.  But Im not sold.

The Vikings have BUF in week 13 that I think I would rather take.   Hopefully the Vikings will straighten themselves out by then.

GB
I am nervous about this game.  The Cowboys defense played terribly last week, but I give them a pass because defensively it is tougher to get up for a game when your season is over.  The offense played just fine.  There were 2 early catchable balls that bounced off the receivers for INTs.  Without those, the Cowboys could have easily won.  Yes, that was at home and this is on the road.  But I think the Boys will be pumped up for this game.  They dont have to worry about defending the run just the pass.  Now with Kitna getting more practice, this game gets me really nervous.

Looking forward, the Pack really dont have a great schedule. Home games are SF, NYG and CHI.  None of them are gimme games. Hopefully I will feel more comfortable with one of those than I do this week.

NYG
As a Giants fan, them playing in SEA brings back flashbacks of the drubbing in 2006 (the game started 35-0).  But, hopefully this game will start and turn out differently.  That was coming off an emotional division game, flying cross country and just not prepared.  This is coming off a bye.  I actually would have liked this game better had Hasselbeck been playing.  One of my rules is to always go against a QB the week after he gets a concussion.  Stupid NFL is trying to shut down players after a concussion.  Who do they think they are?  If QBs want to play, and lose, let them!  (Side note: I think this is the 7th backup QB the Giants will face.  Claussen, Collins, Hanie, Hill, Stanton, Kitna, now Whitehurst)

Looking forward, the Giants have a home game vs JAC in a semi-weak Week 12. 

NO
Are we sure they are good?  They are getting a lot of respect after barely beating a Claussen-led Panthers team at home. Now on the road where they arent as good against a team with a better QB (I think Moore is serviceable.  Claussen, not so much right now).  I wouldnt be surprised at all if this game comes down to the final minutes.

Looking forward, the Saints have home games vs SEA, SEA and TB all teams that should be regressing soon.

NE
Mangini vs Bellichick.  Should be a fun game especially with Cleveland coming off a bye.  No chance I take NE here.

Looking forward, NE doesnt have an easy schedule, but the game @BUF in week 16 is during a 3 pick week, so I have them penciled in for that week.

NYJ
The Jets are a far superior team.  I can see them dominating the game but somehow Detroit hangs around.  I think the Jets will pull it out, but last year they were streaky with two 3 game losing streaks.  I think they are better than that this year, and will pull it out, but you never know.

Looking forward, the Jets have CIN and BAL at home.  Saving them.


Other Notes
KC has won in OAK each of the last 7 years
IND has been an underdog at an NFC team once in the last 7 years

PICK
For me, it really comes down to:

• GB vs DAL this week and MIN vs BUF in week 13  OR
• MIN vs ARI this week and GB vs SF in week 13

Option 1 is probably better, but the I hate the Cowboys.  Taking MIN.

2nd Half Pool

I am going to change the way I do these posts a bit, not caring as much about what other people are picking and just pick the best team for that week.  I will probably be rambling more as well.

Rules:
Week 9: 1 Team
Weeks 10-15: 2 Teams
Weeks 16-17: 3 Teams

19 Teams Total

Here is my future value sheet which I update every week:

Team	Week 9	Week 10	Week 11	Week 12	Week 13	Week 14	Week 15	Week 16	Week 17
ARI		2			-2.5	-2.5		0
ATL	-8.5	-2		-2.5	1	6		-1	-8.5
BAL	-5	2.5	7.5	-6	0		-2	5.5	-7
BUF						-2
CAR							-3
CHI	3	0
CIN			-6				-3.5
CLE				-3
DAL			-1
DEN				-2.5
DET		2.5			-2
GB	-8.5				-6.5	3.5		-2.5	-6.5
HOU		5.5		-3		-1		5.5	-8.5
IND	2.5	-10		-5	-13	1	-14	6.5	-6
JAC			-3
KC		4.5	-9		-6.5		1	-1	-3
MIA		-3	-4.5	2	-7		-7.5	-6
MIN	-8		-3		-9.5	-1	-5.5		1
NE	4.5		-1.5	5.5	-3.5	6.5	-5.5	8.5	-6.5
NO	6.5		-9.5	7	6	-9.5			-7
NYG	6.5	-13.5		-12.5	-5		-3.5
NYJ	4	7	-6.5	-9		-3		3	-9.5
OAK	-3					1	-3.5
PHI			-1	1.5	-3	3		-3	-8.5
PIT	4.5	-3	-7.5	10		-9.5	-3	-11.5	6
SD	3		-7.5		-7	-6.5	7	3.5	3.5
SEA				-3	-6		-1		-3
SF		-3	-1	3		-4.5			-6.5
STL			-1.5					-1
TB		-5					-1.5	-3
TEN			-5		-9.5		-3	1
WAS		-2		-2.5		-4	2.5	5	-1.5
Division
Conference
Interconference
Number with a - in front means a home favorite.  Ex -3 means 3 point home favorite. I will be back tomorrow with my ramblings.