Week 6 Games

Here are the % picks from OFP for Week 6-

	Team	Picks
1	Steelers	33.1%
2	Packers	22.1%
3	Eagles	16.9%
4	Jaguars	11.3%
5	Jets	10.1%
6	Patriots	4.9%
7	Redskins	0.5%
8	Bengals	0.4%
9	Panthers	0.3%
10	Chargers	0.1%
11	Falcons	0.1%
12	Seahawks	0.1%
13	Giants	0.0%

CLE @ PIT

The Browns haven't beaten the Steelers in a looooong time.  I don't think that will change this week.  But, everyone is expecting a Pitt rout while I think the Browns can keep it close.  Roethlisberger is doing all sorts of cameos during the week, the Steelers defense has been sub par against the pass and now the loss of Smith could be huge for the run defense.  I think people who take PIT might be sweating this out.  Sounds crazy.

DET @ GB

The research cautions us on GB this game, but I'm still taking them.  I expect that the bye week helped get the O-line healthier and the defense more practice with their switch from 4-3 to 3-4.  (There is an article on FO or in their book that the switch to the 3-4 should start paying dividends after their bye).  But the main reason I think the Packers will win is because of the highlights of big plays I've seen against the Lions pass D.  Wow, they look atrocious.  If the O-line gives Rodgers any time at all, he should be able to find Jennings, Driver and Nelson down the field. A lot.

PHI @ OAK

If you still have the Eagles left, congratulations.  See you next week.

STL @ JAC

The two things that scares me are that the Jags have the highest variance according to FO so far.  That means they play very inconsistently. And they've been shuffling their O-line all over the place so far, now having 2 disastrous running games in a row.  And now MJD is calling out coaches.  I don't know if that'll light a fire under him/them or will backfire.  One thing not to worry about is the 41-0 drubbing last week.  Teams have shown that getting shut out on the road has no correlation in W/L to playing at home the next week.  In fact, most teams win at home the next week. 

The STL offense has moved the ball decently this year, they just make so many mistakes with fumbles, picks and missed FGs after these long drives. One of these weeks luck will be on their side and they'll pull out a victory.  I don't think it'll be this week though. 

BUF @ NYJ

On paper the Jets should beat the Bills handily.  I'm hesitant to take the Jets though.  The Jets always seem to have trouble with the Bills, and AFC East games are generally close in the beginning of the season.   While I do think the Jets D will hold the Bills to 10 points or less, I want to see them shore up that running defense first.   I think this will be a close, low scoring game (hopefully not 6-3 though).  The difference will be which QB will make more mistakes.  My money is on Edwards.

TEN @ NE

Everyone finally gave up on Tennessee winning a game.  First it was 0-2? Nah. Then 0-3, then 0-4 then 0-5.  Now that everyone thinks they're done, it's time for them to show up.  I think TEN matches up very well with NE.  They will shut down the Pats running game.  Brady will have to be ON to win this game, and I'm not confident in him being better than average just yet. On the other side of the ball, NE is below average against the run.  Johnson should have a solid game and keep the Titans in it.  This game is way too close to be taking NE in a survivor pool.  

KC @ WAS

KC's schedule the last 3 weeks: L to PHI by 20, L to NYG by 11, L to DAL by 6, now the Redskins.  They are getting closer and closer vs the NFC East.  If this were in KC I'd say they can take WAS.  But at WAS will be tough, even though the Skins are a pretty bad team.  The game has upset written all over it, but the Chiefs on the road? There is a reason no one is taking this game.

HOU @ CIN

5 plays are the difference between the Texans being 4-1 and Bengals 1-4 going into this game.  I like HOU with the points, but this is a game to stay away from in Survivor.  My thoughts on the Bengals are as follows: There is a good chance that if they are for real they will still end up no better than 10-6.  That means they are a .500 team from now on.  Good luck taking them the rest of the way.  

CAR @ TB

CAR only giving 3 points on the road to the Bucs?  And the line hasn't moved.  I'm surprised because I thought the public was still on Car, but apparently both they and TEN have fallen out of favor with everyone.  I see no reason to take the Panthers here.  We don't know if that comeback last week is a sign of things to come or not.  My hunch is that it is, and this team goes on a mini run now, but I'm not banking on it for survivor this week.   

DEN @ SD

Not a survivor pick, but good game.  DEN usually brings out the best in SD,especially the last 3 years.  But Tomlinson isn't his old self and SD has a lot of injuries.  I think this should be another quality night game. 

CHI @ ATL

As said in the research, both these teams have good trends going for them.  I like ATL in the game, but certainly not in Survivor.

ARI @ SEA

NFC West.  zzzzzzzzz.  

NYG @ NO

The Saints have not been good after a bye the past few years.  Maybe their offense is out of sync with a week off.  But the Giants have been playing terrible teams and this is a major upgrade in opponent talent.  I'm not sold on the Saints defense yet.  This should be a great test for them.