Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Week 8 Games

Here are the picks according to OFP for Week 8:


Team
Picks
1
Chargers
50.0%
2
Bears
27.2%
3
Cardinals
9.0%
4
Colts
5.5%
5
Cowboys
5.3%
6
Lions
1.1%
7
Saints
1.1%
8
Texans
0.2%
9
Titans
0.1%
10
Jets
0.1%
11
Rams
0.1%
12
Ravens
0.1%
13
Eagles
0.0%


OAK @ SD
The Raiders did give the Chargers a scare in Week 1, but I don't see it happening again.  Last year in OAK the Raiders made it a close game then got blown out in SD.  This year should be more of the same.  I do think that the Raiders can run on the Chargers.  But, assuming SD leads in the game the Raiders won't be running, and anyway, Cable loves calling way too many pass plays.  The Chargers host KC in week 12, are at CLE week 13, @TEN week 16 and home to WAS week 17.  They do have a lot of future value.  As of now I am taking this game even with the value and # of people taking them.


CLE @ CHI
The Bears have a lot of issues, but should be able to win this week.  They have played better at home so far this season while the Cleveland offense has scored 22 points in 4 road games.  The Browns have had the toughest schedule so far this season.  Their 6 opponents are 23-11 against other teams. I would expect the Browns to win a few games in the second half with DET, KC, OAK, JAC on their schedule.  Not this week though.  This is my 2nd pick.  The Bears have STL at home in week 13 and are at Detroit in week 17.


CAR @ ARI
I think this game will be closer than many people think.  The Cardinals have the #1 rush defense, and that is the Panthers strength.  It should be interesting to see which one wins out.  But it should also mean a few big plays by Steve Smith. [edit: playoff game was in Carolina]  Arizona still plays STL twice, Detroit and Tennessee.  I'll save them for a non-let down game.


SF @ IND
I don't expect this game to be easy for the Colts.  They should win, just like Minnesota should have beaten the 49ers at home a few weeks back.  If you haven't picked Indy, there aren't that many great games left to pick them, even as good as they are.  Tenn at home (division stomp rematch), HOU twice, NE, BAL, DEN, JAC, NYJ, BUF (the last 2 where they might be resting players). 


SEA @ DAL
Poor Seattle and their offensive line. They had a 4th string left tackle in last game.  If the injuries keep up, they might be in the discussion for the bottom tier teams.  Right now I think they are comparable to Buffalo who is bad but decent enough to pull an upset if everything goes right.  I don't think that happens this week though.  Dallas still plays OAK so I'm saving them.


STL @ DET
Why people are taking the Lions here I do not know. If you are still alive that means you survived 7 weeks while 60% of your pool is probably gone.  And now you are going to take Detroit? Off a bye? That's crazy.  I understand taking a game like this in Week 11 and later if you are in a pool that has double picks, but this... wow. 


ATL @ NO
This should be a very good game.  It's too bad that ATL has a few injuries in their secondary.  The Saints have a very easy schedule coming up.  There is no reason to take this game.


HOU @ BUF
If I were going to take a chance this week it'd probably be with this game.  The Texans D has been playing well lately, and the Bills stink. I am going to hold off on taking this though.  


JAC @ TEN
The 0-6 team is favored by 3 over the 3-3 team.  I'm pretty sure that screams, "Dont take the Jags."  Plus, this is our first Division Stomp Rematch game.  


MIA @ NYJ
As crazy as it sounds, I didn't think the Jets D played well last week.  They got a few lucky turnovers due more to OAK ineptitude, and then the game was out of hand.  This was a classic game 2 weeks ago, lets see if the Jets can handle the wildcat or if they make the right adjustments on Henne.


DEN @ BAL
Great match up.  If the Broncos can pull this one out, I will be uber-impressed.    


NYG @ PHI
2 overrated teams right now.  It'll probably be 16-13 or something, but both teams have a lot of issues.

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