Week 10 Games

On to Week 10: 

Here are the percentages from OFP:

	Team	Picks
1	Vikings	42.0%
2	Dolphins	22.1%
3	Saints	13.7%
4	Cardinals	8.9%
5	Ravens	6.4%
6	Titans	2.5%
7	Broncos	2.4%
8	Jets	1.1%
9	Steelers	0.4%
10	Falcons	0.1%
11	Raiders	0.1%
12	Cowboys	0.0%
13	49ers	0.0%
14	Eagles	0.0%
15	Colts	0.0%

MIN @ DET

16.5 point spread. The "gimme" game of the week. Right? Wrong.  This one is going to be close. It is a Division Stomp Rematch game.  Minnesota beat Detroit by 14, at home earlier this year.  But they didn't outplay the Lions.  Same amount of yardage and similar first downs.  Detroit was even ahead at halftime. Detroit gave Minny fits last year too. A lot of people will be taking this game and sweating in the 4th quarter.  A few lucky breaks or good plays will decide this one. 

The Vikings only 2 good survivor games are this week and next week (vs SEA) so take them one of these two weeks (I would save them for next week even with several other big spreads). 

TB @ MIA

The Bucs needed +2 Turnovers, 2 defensive/special teams TD's (well, they needed one the second iced it), 6 sacks and 12 QB hits to beat the Packers.  Miami has given up its fair share of sacks but are averaging only 1 turnover per game since Henne started. The Dolphins have one of the best rushing attacks while TB has one of the worst defenses at stopping the run.  The Dolphins would need to melt down to lose this game. I'm taking them as my team #1.

The other option is to save them for week 12 @ Buffalo, but I need them now.

NO @ STL

Not much to say here.  The Saints have easy games including 2 vs TB.  No need to take them here, but if you want to be safe, this is safe.

SEA @ ARI

This is also a Division Stomp Rematch game.  But, if you notice, the NFC West is the only division that didn't have upsets in the rematch, and if the 2nd game was at home, the wins were even bigger.  I like Arizona going forward with STL twice and DET on their schedule, but 2 of those games are week 15 and later and last year they shut it down after they theoretically clinched.  So, its probably best to take them this week or next, but saving them for week 15/16 would still be a solid strategy.  For strategy reasons I am going to take the Cardinals as my second team.

BAL @ CLE

Yet another Division Stomp Rematch.  I can not see the Browns winning though. The Browns give up tons of yardage on the ground and can;t score points. Unless their defense somehow shows up and they get a couple big special teams plays, this shouldn't be close.  Baltimore still has Detroit and @Oakland so I will save them and take Arizona as my second team instead.

BUF @ TEN

The Titans win a few games and are now getting some love.  I do like them in this game but one thing concerns me.  The Bills are coming off a bye, and if they worked on fundamentals, like tackling, then their defense is pretty solid. (4th in pass D 31st in run D).  So if they concentrated on stopping C Johnson they can win this 6-3. Though I think CJ can break one, I'm not taking this game.

DEN @ WAS

Is anyone confident in Denver anymore? The Redskins stink but if their defense can hold the Broncos to the teens, they have a shot here.  I think the Broncos are worse than they have been playing and the Redskins better.  Needless to say, I will not be picking the Broncos. 

JAC @ NYJ

Revis cancels out Sims-Walker, Jets concentrate on MJD.  Will the Jags score (without creating turnovers)?  I'm thinking no.

CIN @ PIT

The Bengals can't sweep the Steelers like they couldn't sweep the Ravens? Come on.  Why would anyone take this game? Pit still has @KC, OAK, @CLE.

ATL @ CAR

ATL has not been good on the road (except for the 49ers game) and CAR is playing better recently.  No need to take crazy NFC South division games.

KC @ OAK

If you are in a league that needs to pick 25+ teams, this is one you can take a 50/50 shot on.  But why do that in week 10? Stay alive and take 50/50 games in week 14 and on.