Week 11 Games

On to week 11. Here are the picks from OFP

1	Cowboys	24.7%
2	Bengals	16.5%
3	Steelers	11.4%
4	Jaguars	11.1%
5	Cardinals	10.9%
6	Patriots	8.4%
7	Vikings	6.4%
8	Saints	6.1%
9	Lions	1.8%
10	Giants	0.9%
11	Packers	0.9%
12	Panthers	0.5%
13	Texans	0.3%
14	Colts	0.1%
15	Eagles	0.0%

Lots of big spreads this week so we can either see a boring week or have a big shakeup in our Survivor pools.

WAS @ DAL

I don't like this pick.  Dallas and Washington always seem to play close games.  I remember seeing an article on FO about underdogs winning division rivalry games and Washington-Dallas was at the top of the list.  Plus, Dallas has Oakland at home on a short week next week.

CIN @ OAK

The Bengals are riding high.  Coming off 2 huge division wins even when no one believed they could beat BAL and PIT twice in a season. Last week in PIT was a bruising game.  The Bengals have to be banged up (including Benson) after such a physical game.  And now they are taking their puffed up ego's and broken down bodies across the country to play in Oakland.  The Bengals and betting public (77% are taking CIN to win by at least 10) are overconfident.  It's a trap game.  If the Bengals wont be more physical than the Raiders, its a 50/50 shot who wins this game.   Cincy still has CLE, DET and KC.  Save them.  Don't take them in Oakland.

PIT @ KC

To beat PIT you have to get to Roethlisberger.  If he extends plays, he'll find a man and make a play.  KC has the worst D-Line sack rate.  Thats not a good sign for KC.  The other side of the ball PIT also has a huge advantage.  Arrowhead is not usually an easy place to win, but it should be for PIT on Sunday.  The only reason not to take this game is PITs future schedule with CLE and OAK.  In a 1 pick league, this would be my pick.

Ed. note: I will discuss below my decision ton this game in my 2 team league.

BUF @ JAC

BUF's overall defense is solid, but run D has been VERY porous, yet Taking JAC would make me very nervous.  The huge variable is obviously the new Head Coach.  No one has any idea how the players will respond.  Throw in the fact the JAC is very inconsistent (30th in variable rate on FO), and lost their best cornerback to injury and it makes this game a tough call to pull the trigger on.

Vegaswatch is taking this game based on this week and future value, and he's won 27 weeks in a row. So you can feel confident about this game based on the spreads and all.  

ARI @ STL

Poor Rams. So far at home they have played the 5-4 Packers, 8-1 VIkings, 9-0 Colts and 9-0 Saints, and now they have the 6-3 Cardinals.  It was nice to see them play tough last week against the Saints.  They are going to need another good game from their secondary plus a few turnovers to keep it close.  I'm not against taking the Cardinals here.  I do like them in weeks 15-16 @DET and home for STL, but by then the could have the division wrapped up and we know how they played last year in the same position.  A tough call between ARI and PIT, but I would be more shocked if KC won than STL. 

NYJ @ NE

I love how people are so confident in this NE game predicting Bellichick will get revenge from last time they played and is pissed about last week.  I love it from the Jets perspective that is.  We know Revis can handle Moss as well as anyone.  The Jets will play with a lot of heart and passion after last week's loss.  I see this one coming down to the wire.

SEA @ MIN

If you still have MIN this is probably the best week to take them.  I am a bit nervous about this being close because SEA has a pretty good rush D.  But SEA has been really bad on the road.  I think its pretty safe to take MIN.

NO @ TB

The Saints are getting closer and closer to losing.  It seems like they have been playing like they are looking forward to the game vs NE as a big test.  I think the 2 game honeymoon of Freeman is over now with some tape on him.  The Saints D has some injuries and might give up some points, but Raheem Morris just called out his entire D who might just quit on him (or will they rally against the top offense?) .  NO should be safe here, but have a game vs TB again in week 16 if you want to save them.

CLE @ DET

I said it a couple of times already.  If you are in a 1 pick league (17 for the season) there is no reason to take this game.  If you have to pick 20-25 teams, then this game becomes a strategy game.  There are other games like this (BUF-KC, OAK-CLE, KC-CLE) later on that you probably have just as good a chance to win on.  Unless you have to pick it, you should probably pass on this game. 

On that note, I might have to take this game in one of my leagues.  I will post my conundrum after the games.

ATL @ NYG

Why would you take the Giants here?  They might win (though they are generally awful after a bye) but there are 7 games better than this.

SF @ GB

Same thing here.  Plus GB plays DET next week.

MIA @ CAR

Tempting to take CAR to try to get a game over with on Thursday, but we don't know how Miami will fare without Brown in the Wildcat.  Plus the Panthers just lost their Left Tackle for the year.  Not a game to take.   (Random thought I haven't heard anywhere- Move Ricky Williams to Ronnie Brown's spot in the Wildcat and Ted Ginn to Ricky's That would be fun.)  

TEN @ HOU

Again, why take this game?

IND @ BAL

Indy only favored by .5.  Something is up.  I'm not sure what, because Manning usually carves up the BAL defense.  And now the BAL secondary is nowhere near as good as it used to be.

PHI @ CHI

Chicago coming off a terrible game on the west coast but has an extra 3 days rest, Philly coming off a terrible game on the west coast on the road.  But Philly is much better. Uch. Wish another game was flexed to the Sunday night spot.

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Just to discuss my leagues for a second, my Extreme League (picked before week 3 and no changes can be made) has PIT.  My league that has 1 team through 11 weeks then 2 in weeks 12-15 and 3 in 16-17 I am taking MIN as I would rather save ARI, PIT, CIN, DAL, NO with better future value.

My league that has been picking 2 teams since week 4 is getting very difficult.  There are 415 entries left and we will continue to pick 2 teams per week until there are under 100 (or 80 or 60 depending on the week) entries left.  I have already used 17 teams.  Here are my options as I see it-

1. I can take NO and PIT this week with relatively safe picks.  If I do that, my projected picks will be (assuming 2 picks through week 14): 12- DAL (Oak), SF (Jac) 13- CAR (Tb), HOU (@Jac) 14- BAL (Det), TEN (Stl) 15 CLE/KC 16- CLE/OAK 17-?.  

2. I can take NO and a risk on DET this week which would then help me move PIT to week 13 and HOU to week 15.  

The difference between the 2 is (a) taking DET-CLE this week, PIT-OAK in week 13 and HOU-STL in week 15 or (b) PIT-KC this week, HOU-JAC in week 13 and CLE-KC in week 15.

The pro to (b) is that I get a better chance at surviving this week and if there is a huge upset (like Cincy) this week, I can move around picks and still be ok.  The con is that if there is no big upset I will be at a big disadvantage if I make it late in the season. 

The pro to (a) is that I will have better match ups the next few weeks if I can win the DET-CLE game.  And if there is a big upset I will be in very good position.  The con is that I am at a much bigger risk this week.

I am not sure what I will do.  If the option were just take DET-CLE this week or KC-CLE in week 15 there is no doubt I take the risk later on.  But not knowing when we make it to 1 pick is making this very difficult.  If by week 13 we are at 1 pick, I would rather wait and pick the tossup game later.  But, we won't know.  The key team is Cincy.  383 out of 415 people still have them and I think 300+ will take them this week.  Lets go Raiders!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!