Week 13 Games

On to week 13.  From OFP:

Team	Picks
1	Bengals	36.6%
2	Steelers	20.5%
3	Bears	13.1%
4	Chargers	11.6%
5	Panthers	6.0%
6	Broncos	3.7%
7	Saints	3.3%
8	Colts	2.1%
9	Patriots	1.1%
10	Jets	0.6%
11	Eagles	0.4%
12	Packers	0.2%
13	49ers	0.1%
14	Bills	0.1%
15	Texans	0.1%
16	Seahawks	0.1%
17	Vikings	0.1%

CIN vs DET

Lots of people taking the Bengals, and its not a bad idea.  The Lions had 10 days off, but now going into Cincy in the cold against a team that has a good defense, I don't see the upset happening.  The Bengals have only won by a large margin once, against the other NFC north opponent to come to Cincy.  

Cincy does have a good game against KC in week 16, so if you have other options this week and not many options for then, save Cincy.  I don't love the week 16 match up coming off 2 road games at MIN and SD, so I would rather take them this week.

OAK @ PIT

Congrats if you have PIT. They are in CLE next week too, both good match ups, but I will be taking them this week.  This is my #1 game of the week.

STL @ CHI

I don't like this game at all for the Bears.  They haven't been playing well, and it seems like the Rams are at least trying.  It's a big spread but I wouldn't be surprised to see a field goal game.

SD @ CLE

I can't see an upset happening here, but a west coast team flying east, playing in 30 degree weather doesn't bode well.  SD still has WAS in week 17.

TB @ CAR

I don't suggest anyone take this game unless absolutely necessary.  The Panthers seem to have quit, they know they aren't making the playoffs and after this week will play NE, MIN, NYG and MIN.  They know they are done.  Will they show up this week?  I don't know.  The 2 big wins for the Panthers have been when they had no turnovers.  Moore needs to play safe and the RBs need to hold on to the ball for CAR to win.

TB has been playing much better since Freeman came in, but you have to wonder when they will get discouraged.  They lost to MIA on a last minute 70 yard drive after having the lead; lost to NO and gave up in the 2nd half; and lost to ATL where they had the lead and coach lost it for them.  I am not sure when they will get demoralized either.

KC @ DEN

The way DEN played last Thursday showed they can be for real if they want to.  With 10 days off I would expect them to easily beat KC.  But DEN hasn't been good in KC in December, and Vegas put the line at -4.5 for Denver and haven't moved it even though 70%+ have taken DEN..  I would save DEN for the OAK match up, or week 17.

NO @ WAS

Congrats if you still have the Saints but this is not the week to take them.  Emotional Monday night win now playing in WAS who has played well at home and has a decent D.  Save them for TB again.

I wouldn't suggest taking any of the other games.

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In League #1 we are down to 177 and so we will still be picking 2 teams this week.  I still have PIT and will be taking them as one team.  The other team is up for debate.  The only favorite I have is Carolina, which I don't like at all.  Looking at the rest of the pool, most teams will be taking CAR, DEN or HOU.  I will either be taking CAR or waiting it out on Sunday, see how many people lose (hopefully a lot with DEN and HOU, making it a 1 pick league) then take BAL on Monday and hedge accordingly.

In league #2 I have the Bengals and Steelers.  I will wait on the Broncos, Saints and Patriots.