Week 15 Games

On to Week 15.  I added some extended analysis for a friend who is in a multi-pick league and deciding between SEA and NYJ.

Here are the percentages from OFP:

1	Broncos	43.5%
2	Texans	20.6%
3	Cardinals	17.1%
4	Seahawks	6.4%
5	Eagles	4.7%
6	Ravens	2.4%
7	Patriots	1.3%
8	Jets	1.0%
9	Colts	0.7%
10	Chiefs	0.6%
11	Saints	0.5%
12	Vikings	0.5%
13	Giants	0.2%
14	Chargers	0.2%
15	Titans	0.2%
16	Browns	0.1%

OAK @ DEN

The Broncos should beat the Charlie Frye led Raiders (though this is a Division Stomp Rematch game).  I would suggest saving them for week 17 (especially in leagues that need multiple picks in week 17) unless your 2nd best options this week is KC-CLE.

HOU @ STL

The Rams are just terrible.  The Texans have no future value and should be a very safe pick, even on the road.

ARI @ DET

ARI also has a great game next week, so save them unless you have no other options this week.

TB @ SEA  (extended analysis)

The Seahawks are favored by 7, but are awful.  They are 4-2 at home, but a team like Detroit was able to jump out to a 17-0 lead on them.  Plus, the later into the year you get for mediocre/bad teams, the less home field acts as an advantage.  Really, how loud will Quest Field be this week?

The Bucs are even worse (though according to FO, not that much worse) and have to fly cross country east-west and north-south.  its a loooong flight.  But the Bucs have played well with Freeman, even on the road.  @MIA we all remember, @ATL we all remember too (Roddy!) and @CAR they had 470 yards of offense. They got crushed last week because the Jets matched up perfectly against them- a shutdown corner on Bryant and active linebackers on Winslow.  

All in all, I dont see this game as a better option than flipping a coin on KC-CLE

SF @ PHI

If you have Philly, use them if you need multiple picks.

CHI @ BAL

Same here.

NE @ BUF

Same here.

ATL @ NYJ (extended analysis)

The Jets are a solid team. Good running game, good defense.  If they take care of the ball, they have a great shot at winning any game.  If you think about it, ATLs offense is similar to TBs (especially with Redman).  One good WR, good TE but a better run game.  Revis + active LB's= shutdown the passing game. [if you remember, JAC was able to pass the ball decently against the Jets.  Im not sure how.  For some reason Sims-Walker was covered by Sheppard on a couple of plays and that was the difference].   

The offense is playing against the strength of the ATL defense who is ranked 10 vs run and 28 vs pass (FO).  BUT, when a team isnt playing for anything like ATL [debatable, but they had their last shot last week vs a division foe and couldnt pull it out.  they know they are done] they become less physical and dont play well vs the run.

The Falcons are 1-4 on the road, now playing outdoors in december in NY.  I dont see them showing up, with nothing to play for.

Also, they havent faced a defense like Rex Ryan.  Look at how many offensive point the rest of the NFC put up on the Jets this year:

NO:10

CAR: 6

TB: 3

This is much better than a flip of a coin game.