Week 4

Interesting week with a ton of Division games.

NO
The Saints have not been playing well, but this week they have the Panthers at home this week.  They have a ton of future value with 8 more games being favored over a TD. Even if 40%+ weren't taking them I would pass.

GB
The biggest favorite of the week.  Their biggest issue is that they have a ton of future value with 7 future games as a TD favorite, including 3 in double digits, and a favorable schedule during Double Picks weeks.

SD
Solid game to take, though just like the previous games SD has a lot of future value with 5 more games as a TD+ favorite.
UPDATE: With the new prospective lines up today, Wednesday, the Chargers took a big hit in future value,  with only 3 more solid value games.  In those 3 weeks, there are at least 4 other games of solid value.  SD is my pick this week.

ATL
Interesting game with the 49ers reeling.  ATL crushed them last year but SF needs this game.  I think the other options are much better than this one, even considering future value.

IND
I have heard a bunch of talk that IND doesn't play well in JAC.  Well, over the last 8 years, IND has only lost their twice.  And only once have they been favored by a TD or more.   The Colts don't have a great future schedule, but in week 10 when double picks start, there are very few options and IND is one.  I think I need to save them.

NYJ

The Jets are only a 4.5 point favorite which makes me a bit nervous to take them.  Nonetheless, my Math Model likes the Jets.  They only have 1 game as a TD favorite before week 17, so I am leaning toward the Jets right now but might decide to play it safe and take SD.  

Aggressive Possibilities

SEA
Only a 1 point favorite, but no future value and going into a bye are a very interesting possibility.

CHI
{Edit: The line has moved enough toward the Giants that the Bears should not even be considered for an aggressive pick}

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Season Recap [Rules- 1 pick through Week 9.  Double Picks thereafter.  Entry 2 is more aggressive]

Entry 1- NYG, PHI, MIN, NYJ 

Entry 2- ARI, DEN, MIN, NYJ

1	Saints	45.4%
2	Packers	18.8%
3	Chargers	12.5%
4	Falcons	6.3%
5	Colts	4.8%
6	Jets	3.6%
7	Texans	1.9%
8	Eagles	1.8%
9	Titans	1.7%
10	Bengals	1.2%
11	Seahawks	0.7%
12	Giants	0.3%
13	Rams	0.2%
14	Patriots	0.2%
15	Bills	0.1%
16	Lions	0.1%
17	Panthers	0.1%
18	Browns	0.1%