Week 1

I was trying to find some trends for Week 1.

Needless to say, it's a bit murky for a clear winner, but we do see some possible traps with teams that were  +.500 the year before playing on the road.  (And this even held true on the road against teams under .500).  Of course 2006 throws this for a loop a bit, but overall, we should be careful with MIN, NYJ, CHI.  No one is taking the Jets or Bears anyway, but the trend says be careful of MIN.

Here are the top 5 picks from ESPN Eliminator Challenge:

Let's take a look at all the games:


Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints


Why is everyone always so infatuated with the Saints?  They are a high scoring team with a terrible defense.  Since they got Brees they are 1 game over .500.  They have a new offensive and defensive coordinator.  Bush and Colston both had major surgery in the off-season. They are missing their pro bowl left tackle, and starting running back  They will not be a very good team.  But there are very few times to take this team (TB at home in week 16 is the only other solid pick.  They have a few decent road match ups, but a bad defense on the road is not a good idea).
As for the Lions, the positive is they got rid of over half of their 53 man roster and brought in a new head coach, plus 2 coordinators with experience.  I'm not saying they'll be good, but they aren't 0-16 material.

It feels like people picking the Saints are not really picking the Saints, they are picking against the Lions.  And I hate to do that because you just never know.  

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens  


I think the Ravens are a great pick this week.  They are generally very good at home.  They did lose Rex Ryan which might impact the defense a bit, but Ray Lewis should be able to keep them in check.
The Chiefs have a lot more change with their coaching staff, but their defense is switching to a 3-4 and that may take time to get used to.  Word is that Cassell will play, but with an aggressive defense, he would probably be smarter sitting out the game rather than risking further injury.

The only issue with taking BAL in week 1 is that they have CLE, CIN, DEN, DET all at home later in the year.


San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders


We all know SD is a good team.  They have a lot of distractions, but so do the Raiders.  Talent alone, this is an easy pick.  Add in the Raider distractions with Cable and Seymour, plus Asmougah playing with a cast, this is an easy pick.

But if you pick them you have to wait until the late Monday night game.  That's a long anxious weekend.  Plus SD plays DEN, OAK, KC, CIN at home later in the season.

Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns


I really am surprised the line is only -4 and the Accuscore prediction so low.  In fact, the Vikings are getting 77% of the action and the line isn't budging.  Apparently Vegas thinks it's going to be close.  I don't see how. The Vikings D should rock the Browns, and AP should wipe the floor with them.  I am not sure what I'm missing. (Other than my research from earlier).  Is Mangini a master motivator?  Should we expect Favre to throw 3 INT's?  Is it special teams?  I don't see this one being close, but if Vegas screams to stay away...

St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks


I am going to stay away from this game just because I really don't know.  Seattle is a heavy favorite, but they are missing 3 starters on their offensive line. (Remember when Jac lost 3 offensive line starters last year?)  It's a big deal.  Plus Hasselbeck and their receivers all coming back from injuries.  A lot of unknown.
St. Louis hasn't won in Seattle in 4 years, but I like Spags and won't bet against this team until I see them a couple of times.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots


I love the Pats here.  Brady and Moss.  That's all they need.  Even if they are down in the 2nd half, I'd still have confidence in this team. I don't like all the new defensive changes, but they should be ok against the Bills.
Buffalo has an entirely new offensive line and a brand new offensive coordinator.
The only reason for pause comes from one bit of research.  In the last 3 years, AFC east teams play tight the first match up of the year. I don't think it's cause to think BUF will pull an upset though.  Plus, Division Night Home games do pretty well.

I'm taking the Pats, even though I will need to wait until Monday night.

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I would not consider the rest of these games for Survivor.  But here is my take anyway:

CHI @ GB


CHI has plenty of changes with Cutler and 3 new offensive lineman.  GB is switching to a 3-4 defense.  I could see this game going either way.


DAL @ TB


I think Tampa is in for a rough year.  Dallas should take this one, and I'll be surprised if it's within one score.  But for week 1, I'll stay away from the road team.

SF @ ARI


Arizona lost both its coordinators.  SF seems to play over it's head with Singletary/Hill.  Stay away.


DEN @ CIN


I love Cincy here. And Denver stinks.  Nonetheless, picking Cincy would be crazy.


JAC @ IND


This could probably go in the top round of games, but with the new coaches in IND and some health in JAC, I'm going to watch these teams for a few weeks before I choose them.

MIA @ ATL


Both teams probably a bit overrated from last year,especially Miami.  But I can see them winning this game.  They are a tough team.

NYJ @ HOU


The Texans were great at home last year.  They should win this game (going back to the research), but I'm not picking against the Jets until I see them a few times.

PHI @ CAR


Pick em.  I like Carolina for no reason.

WAS @ NYG


Giants might be without Ross which could be a big deal, but not against the Redskins.  GMen should take care of business, but there will be plenty of time to take them.

TEN @ PIT


Since the league put the SB winner on the opening Thursday night, the teams are 5-0.  I would expect it to continue, though TEN is probably the toughest test a SB champ has gotten in their opening game.


GOOD LUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!