Week 3 Games

Looking at the Yahoo Survivor Pick Distribution (I like using them better because you can't pick weeks in advance like you can in ESPN), here are the top teams:

Baltimore: 39%

Green Bay 19%

Philadelphia 9%

NYG 8%

Dallas 8%

Washington 4%

Pittsburgh 3%

CLE @ BAL

The largest spread of the week and most popular, for good reason.  No need to worry about the Ravens slowing down after travelling back from the west coast.  Good east coast teams proved to be excellent at home (vs non-division) over the last 3 years after travelling. [I'll share the data another time].  The only question here is whether you want to save them or not.  I think I just want to survive this week.  I have a feeling a lot of these next games will be too close for comfort.

GB @ STL

The Packers are in some trouble with a lot of reshuffling on their offensive line.  Lucky for them the Rams have their health (and talent) issues on their O-line too.  The major issue I have with this game is that GB is on the road.  Look at how they fared on the road last year:

DET- won 48-27 but were trailing with 7:00 left in the 4th quarter (2 INT returns sealed it)
TB- lost 30-21
SEA- won 27-17 against the immortal Charlie Frye
TEN- lost 19-16
MIN- lost 28-27
NO- lost 51-29
JAC- lost 20-16
CHI- lost 20-17

That's 2-6 with 2 ugly wins.  The Packers should still win this game if they don't turn the ball over.  A lot of people feel good about this, but I'm staying away.

KC @ PHI

I don't think I'll be putting my survivor pick in the hands of Kevin Kolb.  I'll save the Eagles for when they are healthier.  The Eagles have much more talent, but we still don't know about their defense with the new coordinator and missing middle LB.  I see this one close to start the second half.  Anyone's game from there.

NYG @ TB

In years past, the Giants had a tendency to sleep walk through these games.  The research favors Tampa, but I think the Giants are too good, too focused and have too much to prove without Plax that this game isn't an issue.  I'll probably save them though.

CAR @ DAL

I'm really not sure how this game will play out.  On one hand, I see the Cowboys running it down the Panthers throat all game, then opening up play action and winning easily.  On the other hand, I still can't shake the Panthers being very good last year.  It's the same O-line and running game.  It should click.  The Panthers have been a team that when you count them out, thats when they win.
I can see a Dallas blowout, close win or Panthers win. Leaning toward Dallas blowout, but I'm staying away.

WAS @ DET

Congratulations Lions!!!  It's been long overdue, and you have the perfect opponent.

PIT @ CIN

No one should be taking the Steelers before Polamalu is back, especially in a road division game.

CHI @ SEA
I'm surprised more people aren't taking the Bears here.  If Hasselbeck, Tatupu and Hill are out, home field shouldn't matter.  Forte should have a field day.

NO @ BUF
Saints haven't played well outdoors, but did just fine last week.  Bills are playing way over their head.  Easy win.
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The rest are not survivor worthy, but here are my thoughts anyway-

ATL @ NE

Good game.  Should be a FG game.

JAC @ HOU

No one is picking this game.  I like the Texans but AFC South games always seem close.

SF @ MIN

The Vikings should crush the 49ers.  SF is the type of team that wins with emotion, not talent.  Those teams can win at home or beat average teams on the road.  They wont beat MIN.

TEN @ NYJ

The research likes the Jets, but no way should anyone be taking them.  This is the first good run D they are playing, so it'll be tougher on Sanchez.  The Titans are fighting for their lives and want payback for last year.  Should be a good game.

DEN @ OAK

How is OAK winning games with Jamarcus Russell???????  They should be running a lot more than passing.  I'm afraid to go against htem because one of these weeks they'll figure that out.

MIA @ SD

Chargers missing their Center for 8 weeks and nose tackle for the season are HUGE.  I can see MIA holding the ball for 40+ minutes again this week.  If they can tackle, they can pull the upset.

IND @ ARI

I'm waffling on this game too.  I like Arizona, but their D isn't good enough to beat Manning.