Week 5 Games

The strategy for a lot of people will just be to pick against OAK, STL, DET, TB, CLE, KC and possibly CAR.  Not a bad strategy especially when those teams are on the road.  A few of those teams will have their moments.  Let's try to avoid those moments.  Side note- Week 9 should be interesting when 4 of those teams are on a bye and 2 others are at home.  Back to this week: 

Here are the top teams and percentages from OFP:

1	Giants	32.1%
2	Eagles	31.3%
3	Steelers	12.8%
4	Vikings	10.3%
5	Cowboys	6.1%
6	Bills	2.4%
7	Ravens	2.1%
8	Panthers	1.1%
9	Cardinals	0.6%
10	Colts	0.4%
11	Jets	0.2%
12	Patriots	0.1%
13	49ers	0.1%
14	Jaguars	0.1%

OAK @ NYG

A few things worry me about the Giants.  1. They have a LOT of injuries, the biggest one being Manning, obviously.  2. First home game after 3 road games might be a let down.  3. The Giants gave a tenancy to give us one crappy performance vs a bad team when they should win.  That being said, I don't think the Giants will give up too many points.  They should still be able to win this game, but if Carr is playing it might be a close low scoring game.  

TB @ PHI

The sign of a good coach in my opinion is one who wins after a bye week.  He knows how to prepare for his opponents and gets the job done.  Andy Ried is outstanding after a bye.  10-0.  I'm taking Philly.  They actually have a tough schedule going forward (well, after next week which is @OAK).  SF, DEN and the division at home.  SD, CHI, ATL and division on the road.

PIT @ DET

I remember hearing a stat that Roethlisberger is great in domed stadiums.  I haven't looked it up, but I'll go with it.  It's not a good thing (in my opinion) that he was on WWE on Monday (at least I think thats what the Sportsguy said).  Maybe he doesn't have to prepare for the Lions.  But that can't be a good sign.  Detroit played 2 decent games at home.  Regardless, Pit has a pretty easy schedule the rest of the year.

MIN @ STL

Several people are saying this is a trap game.  Might be.  My research likes MIN coming off a Monday night division win.  They are my #2 pick this week. They do have DET (division rematch stomp), CIN, SEA at home later on.

DAL @ KC

The one thing that impressed me about KC last week in the loss was the crowd.  They were very into it.  The Chiefs at home could be dangerous.  I see it close for a half or 3 quarters.

CLE @ BUF

The only reason to take this game is if you will need to pick 25 or more teams and want to take a chance on this game.  I think its crazy and I like Cleveland.

CIN @ BAL

We will learn a lot about BAL this week coming off a loss.  If they are a SB contender like most think, they should beat up on CIN.  The Bengals were clearly looking past the Browns last week, but have a really tough test here.  Could get ugly. 

WAS @ CAR

I don't know why people are taking Carolina here.  Didn't we learn from the Titans that teams you think are good/were good can keep losing?  John Fox is 4-3 coming off a bye.  Not inspiring.  Not a good survivor pick.  Save Carolina for if/when they start playing well.  One thing Washington does decently is stop the run, and that's what you need to do to stop the Panthers.  (or have their coach call 10 runs plays in the game).

HOU @ ARI

Again, I'm not sure why anyone would pick this week to be the week to pick the Cardinals.  Both of these teams are wildly inconsistent.  The Cardinals are not a tough team, so HOU might not have as tough a time as usual on the road.

TEN @ IND

The Titans NEED this game.  Have we heard that before?  I'm not sure why the line is so low. AFC South games are usually close, but maybe Vegas thinks C Johnson can run wild and the Titans can hold the ball for 47 minutes.  Possible.  I don't see TEN winning.  But I wouldn't want to use Indy this week.  They have a couple of easy games later on.

NYJ @ MIA

Should be a good game on Monday night.  I give the edge to the better defense.  They should be able to stop Miami's running game (though the Saints ran pretty well against the Jets.  That might have to do with the Jets playing Brees though).  First time AFC east match-ups are generally close, and this one should be as well.

NE @ DEN

Game of the day.  Let's hope DEN's D is up to the challenge.

ATL @ SF

I think too many people like SF here.  They can barely sustain drives more than 30 yards.  I like the Falcons.

JAC @ SEA

Obviously not a survivor game.  I was surprised JAC played so well with 2 starting tackles out last week.  Thats a very good sign (though they did pretty poorly rushing the ball).  Seattle is not the easiest place to win, but I think the Jags take it.