Chicago is coming off a division win and bye. Atlanta is coming off a win on the West Coast, playing at home. Both scenarios have solid trends but it's not a game to take for survivor.
Back to the DVOA comparison that we did last week.
Here are the numbers for the last 2 years, based on largest DVOA difference:
Clearly, week 6 the past 2 years was full of upsets. (CLE over NYG, STL over WAS, MIN barely over DET). While DAVE difference pointed out some other winning games, the overall numbers still aren't good.
So, I added in a column for DVOA diff minus DAVE diff, thinking at this point some teams have been playing above their head, and some playing below their potential. Here is the data:
How about that. The teams with the biggest discrepancy in DVOA-DAVE were the teams that struggled.
Here are this week's numbers:
Enjoy.
Stats aside, this week's Green Bay game scares me. Detroit has hung around in a bunch of games, and I wouldn't be suprised if they won. I had been saving up Pittsburgh and Green Bay for this week (same pool), but as of now my picks are the Steelers and the Jets. What do you think?
ReplyDeleteI'll get to my thoughts tomorrow, but how has Detroit done on the road so far?
ReplyDeleteOnly 2 games - Blown out by NO week one, and last to CHI week 4, but they were tied at the half.
ReplyDeleteIf Calvin Johnson is out this week, GB will be hard to pass up.
I don't like taking injuries into consideration because you never really know how good the backups will perform. They might play the game of their life with their one time to shine. Especially with a backup QB who has been practicing with backup WRs. Though on paper, the Johnson loss would be huge, obviously.
ReplyDeleteWhile Detroit has hung around in some games, in the games on the road they don't have the talent or firepower to keep up.
I fully expect that GB used the bye to shore up their offensive line issues. Additionally, their D has been struggling with the switch from 4-3 to 3-4 but that usually lasts 4 or 5 weeks and gets corrected after a bye.
One note of caution though is the DVOA-DAVE column from the research. Scares me a bit, but I'm still taking GB as one of my two.