Week 7 Games

From the research, both MIA and IND won division games before a bye and that scenario has a good trend.


Here are the percentages for picks from OFP.  It's pretty much a 2 team race.   If you took the Pats, Colts and Packers this is a tough week.

1	Patriots	42.5%
2	Colts	38.8%
3	Packers	5.6%
4	Jets	2.3%
5	Chargers	2.3%
6	Giants	2.2%
7	Panthers	2.0%
8	Saints	2.0%
9	Eagles	1.4%
10	Texans	0.4%
11	Cowboys	0.1%
12	Steelers	0.1%

NE vs TB (in London)

Not much to say here.  You should feel comfortable taking the Pats if you still have them.  The only question is if you want to save them or not.  In weeks 14-16 they have: CAR, @BUF, JAC.

IND @ STL

Again, this should be a good game to take for Survivor.  There is no data pointing to Manning being better or worse after a bye.   I do like the way the Rams have been playing.  It seems like they are playing hard, they just drew the wrong opponent this week.  The Colts also have a favorable schedule including TEN (week 13) but I'm not sold that this team is as good as its been playing recently.  I'm using them this week and not saving them (Even if I hadn't taken NE already, I think Id take IND this week).

GB @ CLE

On paper, this is an easy win for GB.  I still am not sold on this team on the road though.  Between last year and this year, they haven't shown me any reason to take them on the road. They even struggled in STL.  They should be able to pull this one out because the Browns are terrible, but I think it'll be semi-close.

NYJ @ OAK

Despite last week's win (and Seymour saying they are going to the playoffs), this Raiders team is very bad.  They beat a better team without getting any turnovers but Philly had 3 backup offensive lineman, 2 missed field goals, the Raiders recovered 2 of their own fumbles and had 1/4 of their yards on one crazy play.  Yes, the Jets have lost 3 in a row but their D played great vs NO, O played great vs MIA and last week was a rainy, windy division game.  Sanchez is coming home and will be playing in nice weather.  This game has a 20-6 feel.  The Jets are my team #2, even on the road.

SD @ KC

This is another game where on paper SD should win easily.  But I would go nowhere near this game.  SD is struggling both on offense and defense and Arrowhead is a tough place to play.  If KC can keep this close in the 1st quarter, I think they keep it close the whole game.  

ARI @ NYG

The Giants are still a very good team, even after last week.  I think last week was good for them in the long run, but who knows this week.  ARI has a very good run D so the Giants will have to open up throwing.  I think this game will be close.

BUF @ CAR

The team that is smart enough to put 9 in the box will win this game.

NO @ MIA

I am surprised people are taking the Saints here.  They are coming off a very emotional win, now playing an inter-conference game against a team, while the Dolphins are coming off an impressive division win and a bye.   Save the Saints for TB or STL or CAR or WAS.

PHI @ WAS

Are we sure Philly is good?  They beat the Panthers, Chiefs and Bucs.  Its too bad we wont know after this week either.  This is not a good survivor game.  Division rival, on the road, Monday night.

SF @ HOU

Why anyone would take this game?  We really don't know much about either team.  How will SF respond after a bye, and a beating?  How will the Texans play vs another good defense?  

ATL @ DAL

I'll give credit to the Cowboys.  They have been good after their bye.  Should be a good game.

MIN @ PIT

Not much to say.  I like Pit here.