Week 12 Games

On to week 12.  Here are the percentages from OFP:

1	Bengals	37.0%
2	Cowboys	26.4%
3	Chargers	11.2%
4	Falcons	10.8%
5	Packers	8.1%
6	Eagles	3.9%
7	Vikings	0.9%
8	Jets	0.4%
9	Seahawks	0.4%
10	Dolphins	0.3%
11	Colts	0.1%
12	Titans	0.1%
13	49ers	0.1%
14	Giants	0.1%
15	Patriots	0.1%
16	Ravens	0.0%

CLE @ CIN

The Bengals beat themselves last week.  5 fumbles (3 lost), 4 turnovers, missed FG, 2/5 in the red zone, 8 penalties.  They dominated the game (38 minutes time of possession) but didn't put it away allowing the Raiders to hang around and get lucky.   Last week was a trap game and this week is too.  CIN is pissed that they lost, but they come home and have to play a division rival who is even more pissed they lost.  And CLE outplayed CIN last time.  CIN needed a defensive TD and a TD in the last 2 minutes to tie the game.  is the Bengals defense much more improved now than in week 3?  I don't think so. Being home should help CIN, but CLE can keep this close.  If the Bengals can't deliver a knockout punch (again), Survivor pools might get much smaller this week.  

The Bengals are a better play next week vs DET.

OAK @ DAL

To continue the point from above, OAK got seriously outplayed and lucky to even be in the game vs Cincy.  This week on a short week, they travel to Dallas who is very good at home.  I doubt the Raiders will be lucky enough to hang around in the second half. The Cowboys should be able to control the clock and just run, run, run.  If they don't make a ton of mistakes, they should romp.

KC @ SD

This is a Division Stomp rematch, but now in SD, the Chargers should have an edge.  KC is coming off a lucky win in PIT (though Whitlock says they played and were coached well) but has been playing ok on the road.  Judging by talent the Chargers should win easily, but this is a division game and SD has shown in the past that they can and do play down to competition.    

TB @ ATL

The Bucs are terrible.  The fact that they played well for 2.5 games after their bye is not uncommon for a bad team.  The second half of last week should carry into this week and the rest of the season.  Morris has no confidence in his defense (nor should he) and this team can probably be picked against for the rest of the season with 4 of their last 6 on the road.

ATL is a great pick for this week but also has favorable match ups in weeks 16 and 17, so choose accordingly.  

GB @ DET

It would be a shame if Stafford and Johnson miss this game.  I think it would have been a good game had they played.   You can never rule out a close game for a home team on Thanksgiving, especially because GB is not a good road team, but even with Kampman and Harris out, GB should have enough offense to win this game.  

GB is home for SEA in week 16.  If you have the choice, I think this is a better game to take them, but not as good as DAL or ATL.

WAS @ PHI

The last time these teams played it was a sloppy Monday night game where the Eagles did not put away the Redskins but were never in danger of losing.  I think the Eagles are a pretty safe play here even though its a division game.  

The Eagles have SF and Denver at home later.  All 3 games are probably similar.

CHI @ MIN

I doubt anyone has the Vikings left, but if you do, I don't love this game.  The Vikings are far superior but the Bears really need this game.  I still expect the Vikings to win, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a close game.

CAR @ NYJ

It'll be interesting to see how the Panthers play in this game.  At the end of the Miami game last week they looked like they were resigned to losing the game and a losing season.  They had 10 days to prepare for this game, but that might have been 10 days to sulk instead.  I would not want to pick this game.

SEA @ STL

This was going to be my upset special until Bulger got hurt.  I can't take a team with Boller as a starting QB.  The Seahawks got absolutely pasted last week while the Rams have been playing hard vs NO and ARI the last 2 weeks.  I wouldnt be surprised if STL keeps this really close and one team wins on a fluke play.  This is a Division Stomp Rematch.

MIA @ BUF

A battle of the embattled offensive lines.  Buffalo's O-line has been really decimated by injury.  It is very similar to the JAC situation of last year, except Buffalo is a worse team overall.  It will not be pretty for BUF the rest of the year.

MIA is coming off a big win, 10 days of rest, but are travelling to BUF in late November and are a Division Stomp Rematch game too.  The line is only 3, so Vegas seems to think it'll be a close game.  If you take out lucky plays from the first game that would have been close too, but MIA is clearly better.  I expect them to win here.

IND @ HOU

ok, time for Indy to lose.  3 game lead in the AFC and HOU really needs this game.

ARI @ TEN

How about the Titans? Wow. Vince Young playing well.  I see this one being a close, low scoring game.

JAC @ SF

The Jaguars are coming off a win in which they played terribly, now flying to the west coast, playing against a team who's strong suit (run defense) neutralizes their best offensive weapon (MJD).  SF needs to keep Alex Smith in shotgun.  FO has the crazy split in the Game Reads.  It is partly because they were down 3 scores in the second half and the GB defense was missing 2 key players, but JAC will still be missing Mathis and has a terrible pass D.  Yes Gore is good, but just run him from shotgun if its such a difference.  I like SF here.

NYG @ DEN

Giants are flying a long way on a short week which could make for a sloppy game.  

NE @ NO

I hope this game is a great game.

PIT @ BAL

I keep expecting the Baltimore offense to put up more points.  They did it last year and a couple of times this year, but they haven't been consistent at all, even with a solid O-line.  I expect them to win this game at home though.  I wouldn't bet my Survivor pick on it though.

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League #1

There are 217 teams left and we are picking 2 teams.  We will also be picking 2 teams next week unless there are under 80 teams by the start of next week.  Of the 7 big lines this week, here are the number of teams that can pick the games:

CIN- 191

DAL- 62

ATL- 30

MIN- 12

SD- 7

GB- 5

PHI- 5

A LOT of people will be taking CIN this week.  Even so, there are about 100 entries that will need to pick another game besides these big lines.  There might be a lot on both sides of the Jets-Panthers game, some on the Dolphins and a bunch on the 49ers.  It should be interesting to see who everyone takes.

LETS GO BROWNS!!!

I am running out of teams.  Here are my only options (in CAPS)

BAL vs PIT 

BUF vs Mia

CAR vs Jets

CLE vs Cin

DAL vs OAK

HOU vs Ind

SF vs Jac

STL vs Sea

TB vs Atl

TEN vs Ari

The Cowboys are definitely one of my picks.  The other pick probably has to be SF.  There just aren't any options.  

League #2

We have only been picking 1 game so far so I have a lot of options, including DAL and ATL so I will be going with those.