Week 9 Games

Here are the OFP percentages for Week 9.  Going to be tough with BUF, CLE, OAK, STL all off this week.

Team	Picks
1	Falcons	44.0%
2	Seahawks	21.2%
3	Saints	14.8%
4	Packers	9.6%
5	Patriots	5.4%
6	Jaguars	2.2%
7	Colts	1.9%
8	49ers	0.5%
9	Giants	0.2%
10	Ravens	0.1%
11	Bears	0.0%

WAS @ ATL

The Falcons have been playing well despite losing their last 2 games, both in hostile environments in prime time.  I don't like the fact that this game is sandwiched between two division games but since they lost last week, they really need this game.  The Redskins defense isn't putrid like their offense and coming off a bye they might play well, but  with the woeful Redskins offensive line, John Abraham should (finally) have a good game, and when he does, the Falcons win.  

The only reason not to take the Falcons (if you like the alternatives this week) is the very high percentage of people taking them this week combined with easy games later on against TB x2 and BUF.  I almost have to take them in my 2 pick league.

DET @ SEA

This game scares me a bit from the Seahawks perspective. Yes, the Lions are terrible, dead last in DVOA, and now going into Seattle which is generally a tough place to win.  But the Seahawks are pretty bad themselves. Their O-line is hurting and ranked 28th in the league.  Their secondary got Trufant back last week but he wasn't close to being ready, and their corners are 5"11 and 6"0 while Detroit's receivers are 6"5 and 6"3.    I am definitely nervous about picking this game.  In a league that picks 1 team each week (17 total), I would stay away from this game.  But if you will have to pick double picks at some point, you can decide whether you want to take SEA this week or week 12 at STL. 

If you like this game and your only alternatives are the Seahawks and Falcons, they both have favorable matchups this week and in week 12. So you can pick either ATL vs WAS and SEA @ STL or SEA vs DET and ATL vs TB.  I like the latter.
(paragraph was edited Nov 6 to be more clear, per comment below)

CAR @ NO

The Saints have the easiest schedule in the league coming up.  I'm not taking them against a division rival, both coming off emotional wins. The Saints should win this game, but the Panthers have shown they can run the ball on anyone, and if NO makes a few mistakes the Panthers can pull the upset.

GB @ TB

I wish I still had GB for this week.  Granted, Rodgers and co still haven't performed well on the road.  In both Cleveland and St Louis they won big but started very slow.  But this game should be an easy victory for the Packers.  After their first 2 losses this year they bounced back with a win, and i expect that to be the case again.  I think this game is so low down on the list only because most people already took GB.

MIA @ NE

Bill Belichick has been dominant after a bye, 6-1 in the last 7 years (since Brady started). The wildcat beat them last year the first time but was contained the second, and has been stopped the last few weeks by the Jets and Saints.  Throw in Miami starting two rookie cornerbacks and the Pats are a pretty safe pick. I would take this game if everything else lined up in other weeks.  Otherwise, the Pats still play @BUF and JAC late in the season.

KC @ JAC

I would not touch this game. The Jags are playing very poorly and their home crowd barely gives them any advantage.  The Chiefs aren't good, but maybe their running game rallies without LJ in there.  I wouldn't be surprised.

HOU @ IND

Classic game for IND to lose. The Texans play them tough, and the Colts have a few injuries on defense with Sanders and Hagler.  Indy might be looking forward to the Patriots next week, and with a division game, any missteps could cost them.  We'll have to see how the HOU offense responds without Daniels.  Huge loss.

TEN @ SF

If you are a fan of single digit games, this is for you.  This is not a survivor pick.  I do like the Titans turning around their season and finishing with 5-6 wins. 

SD @ NYG

I like the Giants to bounce back here, but both teams have been disappointing this season.  Clearly not a survivor pick.

BAL @ CIN

Love BAL and the way they beat the Broncos last week.  They should be able to do the same to the Bengals this week.

ARI @ CHI

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_N1OjGhIFc