NE
The Patriots are being taken by a whopping 53% in OFP. Their future schedule is decent enough with them favored by a TD or more 3 more times, and 2 more after week 10 when double picks start. Even though this is by far their biggest line, and the biggest line of the week I am passing.
BAL
Similar to NE, but with less people taking them this week and more future value. A wash for the 2 teams. Additionally, division games in this -10.5 range have a tough time covering, so if you pick this game there is a chance you'll be sweating in the 4th quarter.
MIN
Their future value took a huge hit over the last 2 weeks with Vegas slashing a lot of their lines. They only have 3 games where they are favored over a TD. One is home for BUF in week 13 which is tempting to save. There are 3 other lines of -10 or greater that week so I don't think its a huge deal.
As far as the actual game goes, they know they have to win. 0-2 and a pre-bye week. They are in the same boat as BAL with the line being -11, but this being a pre-bye week, the numbers are very much in favor of MIN to win. They are my pick this week.
IND/PIT
My numbers have IND right behind MIN for the top spot this week, and PIT 5th, but they both have too much future value.
NYG/CIN/HOU/ARI
All in the same boat from my numbers. 3 of the 4 should win, but unless you really want to risk it with ARI, I wouldn't tough these games.
WAS
Being taken by 3% but have only a 62% chance of winning according to my numbers. Stay away.
OFP
The Patriots are being taken by a whopping 53% in OFP. Their future schedule is decent enough with them favored by a TD or more 3 more times, and 2 more after week 10 when double picks start. Even though this is by far their biggest line, and the biggest line of the week I am passing.
BAL
Similar to NE, but with less people taking them this week and more future value. A wash for the 2 teams. Additionally, division games in this -10.5 range have a tough time covering, so if you pick this game there is a chance you'll be sweating in the 4th quarter.
MIN
Their future value took a huge hit over the last 2 weeks with Vegas slashing a lot of their lines. They only have 3 games where they are favored over a TD. One is home for BUF in week 13 which is tempting to save. There are 3 other lines of -10 or greater that week so I don't think its a huge deal.
As far as the actual game goes, they know they have to win. 0-2 and a pre-bye week. They are in the same boat as BAL with the line being -11, but this being a pre-bye week, the numbers are very much in favor of MIN to win. They are my pick this week.
IND/PIT
My numbers have IND right behind MIN for the top spot this week, and PIT 5th, but they both have too much future value.
NYG/CIN/HOU/ARI
All in the same boat from my numbers. 3 of the 4 should win, but unless you really want to risk it with ARI, I wouldn't tough these games.
WAS
Being taken by 3% but have only a 62% chance of winning according to my numbers. Stay away.
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Season Recap [Rules- 1 pick through Week 9. Double Picks thereafter]
Entry 1- NYG, PHI, MIN
Entry 2- ARI, DEN, MIN
OFP
1 | Patriots | 53.0% |
2 | Ravens | 27.1% |
3 | Vikings | 10.9% |
4 | Redskins | 3.0% |
5 | Cardinals | 1.4% |
6 | Bengals | 1.2% |
7 | Colts | 0.6% |
8 | Chargers | 0.6% |
9 | Saints | 0.3% |
10 | 49ers | 0.3% |
11 | Eagles | 0.2% |
12 | Steelers | 0.2% |
13 | Giants | 0.2% |
14 | Packers | 0.2% |
15 | Texans | 0.1% |
16 | Chiefs | 0.1% |
17 | Dolphins | 0.1% |
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