Week 5

The biggest issue I am having this week actually has to do with Week 10.  In my league, Week 10 is when double picks start.  Looking ahead to that week, there isn't a single game with at least a 7 point favorite on the board.  As of now, the top spreads for that week are IND and SF as 6 point favorites.

IND

I am very surprised the Colts are only 36% this week.  They are by far the best pick for this week, and people don't generally save teams for future weeks.  Thinking about the Chiefs speed on the turf (Charles, McCluster, Arenas) makes me a tad nervous, but with KC coming off a bye as a big road underdog, and with IND losing a division game on the road last week, I like the big favorites at home.  But do I take them this week or save them for week 10???  

CIN

I like CIN winning here, but my math model has them at winning 67% of the time.  I really hate to take teams under 75% but the Bengals have only 1 future game with a big line, and that is Week 11, where there are 8 big spreads.  Its a tough call for me.  My gut feeling is that the CIN D is too good for TB and Freeman on the road.  It reminds me a bit of Freeman on the road @ CAR last year.  

BAL

I'm not sure what to make of the Broncos.  I thought they'd be terrible, but they have showed that they are a pretty good team.  There are interesting psychological trends here are BAL won a division game on the road as an underdog, and DEN won a road game as an underdog, now an underdog again... Time to do some research...

The trends for BAL come out ok winning 67% of the time, but I still would not want to use them this week.  They have a few games I would like to save them for.

NO

Can anyone explain to me how Max Hall, an undrafterd rookie free agent is getting only 6.5 points this week??? Yes, the Saints have been playing poorly, but still... Maybe Vegas knows something I dont. 

The Saints have 6 more games as a TD+ favorite, so I am staying away.  

SD

The Chargers are actually my 2nd best play from a numbers stand point.  They are a huge favorite in Week 13 and almost have to save for the double pick week now that I have used MIN already (MIN is a huge favorite in Week 13 and most people will be able to take them)

DAL

Are the Cowboys a tough team?  We will find out on Sunday because the Titans are just nasty.  I would think a guy like Roy Williams will get 1 catch, be hit then do nothing the rest of the game.  

I have the Cowboys in the same boat as CIN and BAL at around 67%

ATL

No way am I touching this game.

DET, JAC, STL, BUF 

If you have a bunch of picks and want to go on a flip of a coin to get a really bad team out of the way, go for it.  

In summary, the Colts are the the best option for this week.  The question is whether I would take a shot at either CIN, BAL or DAL to save the Colts.  I think I will split my 2 picks, IND in League 1 and CIN (who has the worst future schedule of the 3 teams) in league 2.  I'll post my official plays on Sunday.  Who knows maybe I'll take a flyer on DET last second.

~Update: I did take a flyer on DET with my aggressive entry, but also took CIN instead of IND in my regular entry. I probably should have re-read my post.

1	Colts	36.1%
2	Bengals	17.8%
3	Ravens	14.6%
4	Saints	8.8%
5	Chargers	8.5%
6	Cowboys	5.0%
7	Falcons	2.4%
8	Lions	1.5%
9	Jets	1.1%
10	Jaguars	1.1%
11	49ers	1.0%
12	Texans	0.7%
13	Bears	0.7%
14	Packers	0.2%
15	Rams	0.2%
16	Bills	0.1%
17	Eagles	0.1%
18	Chiefs	0.1%

--

Season Recap [Rules- 1 pick through Week 9.  Double Picks thereafter.  Entry 2 is more aggressive]

Entry 1- NYG, PHI, MIN, NYJ, CIN 

Entry 2- ARI, DEN, MIN, NYJ, DET

Share
|