Thursday, October 21, 2010

Week 7

BAL
Teams that are big favorites going into their bye have been dominant, and I would expect BAL to be the same. They have 2 games with great future value, but those games are in Weeks 11 and 12 when there are plenty of other games. But, if almost half the league is taking BAL, save them.
(My personal entry used DEN, NYG, NYJ who are big favorites in Week 12, so I need to save them for that week anyway.)

NO
Another big favorite, though I am not sure why they are giving so many points.  They have only played 1 good game so far this year.  Nevertheless, as a survivor play, they are a solid choice, especially with half the entries of BAL.  They have 4 more great games though.  I think thats too much value to be taking them now.

DEN
A surprisingly big favorite this week.  If you need to make double picks at all you will need to take this team either this week or week 12 (home for STL).  I would wait.  The Raiders have been a TD+ underdog in Denver the last 6 years and pulled off wins 3 times.  That would make me really nervous (though I took DEN already).

KC
I still havent seen a line for them, but assuming a 7+ spread, this is a solid pick.  They only have one more 7+ game, next week.  While next week is pretty scarce, there is that Dal-JAC game that has a big line too.  This is my tentative pick right now since I still have DAL for next week.

SEA
This is a very risky game.  Yes, the Seahawks have been great at home, but this game scares me with the coming off a rare road win and ARI coming off a bye.  The Seahawks have almost zero future value, but unless you have used most of the options above, I would stay away.



--
Season Recap [Rules- 1 pick through Week 9.  Double Picks thereafter.  Entry 2 is more aggressive]

Entry 1- NYG, PHI, MIN, NYJ, CIN 
Entry 2- ARI, DEN, MIN, NYJ, DET, NYG

--



Team
Picks
1
Ravens
45.9%
2
Saints
21.9%
3
Broncos
15.8%
4
Chiefs
8.4%
5
Seahawks
4.0%
6
Falcons
1.6%
7
49ers
0.6%
8
Buccaneers
0.4%
9
Steelers
0.4%
10
Cowboys
0.3%
11
Patriots
0.2%
12
Bears
0.1%
13
Titans
0.1%
14
Giants
0.1%
15
Redskins
0.1%
16
Bills
0.1%

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