Week 8

KC
This is an interesting spot for the Chiefs.  They are the only TD favorite of the week, but 50%+ are taking them and still they have decent future value with 2 more home TD+ favorite games, though those weeks have several other options.
A couple of things concern me with the Chiefs.  1.  Last week vs JAC, they refused to throw the ball vs the worst rated pass defense.  The Bills do have the worst run and pass D in the league so I guess whatever Haley does will be ok, but I don't have faith in him.  2. The Chiefs are coming off a 22 point win, have a winless opponent this week and might be looking ahead to a showdown with the Raiders next week.  This is not a team that can overlook opponents.

DAL
This might be the only chance to take the Cowboys the rest of the year.  All their future value is gone without Romo.  They are still -6.5 and are being taken by a fraction of the # of entries on the Chiefs.
I like the fact that they are coming off a home division loss but I am nervous about both Kitna and their psychology. Nervous or not, they are my pick this week (though things might change when  NE-MIN line comes out).

***Now reconsidering.  I ran numbers on teams that lose by 17+ on the road, now on the road again.  They do very well as dogs by 6-7.

NYJ
I have already used the Jets, but I dont like this game anyway.  Coming off a bye now playing an inter-conference game scares me.  There will be other times to take them.

NE
They have very little future value, but there is no line yet.
Here is a stat though- In the last 7 years, MIN has been a road dog of 3+ in an interconference game 9 times.   They are 0-9.
I dont have stats on how teams do coming off a west coast win.  I should get on that.  Id be curious to see if there is a hangover effect.

IND
Monday night division game with a 5.5 home spread is a 50/50 game.  The COlts have way too much future value to take them here.

STL
Wow, people jumping on the bandwagon.  I dont see why this is more than a 50/50 game, but good luck to those who do.

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Season Recap [Rules- 1 pick through Week 9.  Double Picks thereafter.  Entry 2 is more aggressive]

Entry 1- NYG, PHI, MIN, NYJ, CIN 

Entry 2- ARI, DEN, MIN, NYJ, DET, NYG, SEA

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	Team	Picks
1	Chiefs	50.7%
2	Cowboys	12.4%
3	Jets	10.3%
4	Patriots	8.7%
5	Colts	5.8%
6	Rams	5.2%
7	Redskins	1.2%
8	Raiders	1.2%