Down Goes My Season

I got too tempted by the zero future value for the Cowboys and lost last week.  While I am always disappointed when I lose, this one is really bitter, because I did the research and knew history said JAC had a great shot at the upset.  NE was the clear pick of the week.  Here is how I had the rest of my season lined up-

Week 9- ATL vs TB
Week 10- IND vs CIN
Week 10- HOU @ JAC
Week 11- SD vs DEN
Week 11- KC vs ARI
Week 12- PIT @ BUF
Week 12- BAL vs TB
Week 13- GB vs SF
Week 13- TEN vs JAC
Week 14- NO vs STL
Week 14- WAS vs TB
Week 15- MIA vs BUF

I dont know how many weeks would be double weeks, but I planned on week 14.  The final 2 weeks of the season would be a crap shoot with the following teams PHI, CHI, OAK, BUF, CLE, CIN, CAR, TB, DAL, SF, JAC, STL.

I will post tomorrow on the 2nd Half pool I just joined and starts this week.

Week 8

KC
This is an interesting spot for the Chiefs.  They are the only TD favorite of the week, but 50%+ are taking them and still they have decent future value with 2 more home TD+ favorite games, though those weeks have several other options.
A couple of things concern me with the Chiefs.  1.  Last week vs JAC, they refused to throw the ball vs the worst rated pass defense.  The Bills do have the worst run and pass D in the league so I guess whatever Haley does will be ok, but I don't have faith in him.  2. The Chiefs are coming off a 22 point win, have a winless opponent this week and might be looking ahead to a showdown with the Raiders next week.  This is not a team that can overlook opponents.

DAL
This might be the only chance to take the Cowboys the rest of the year.  All their future value is gone without Romo.  They are still -6.5 and are being taken by a fraction of the # of entries on the Chiefs.
I like the fact that they are coming off a home division loss but I am nervous about both Kitna and their psychology. Nervous or not, they are my pick this week (though things might change when  NE-MIN line comes out).

***Now reconsidering.  I ran numbers on teams that lose by 17+ on the road, now on the road again.  They do very well as dogs by 6-7.

NYJ
I have already used the Jets, but I dont like this game anyway.  Coming off a bye now playing an inter-conference game scares me.  There will be other times to take them.

NE
They have very little future value, but there is no line yet.
Here is a stat though- In the last 7 years, MIN has been a road dog of 3+ in an interconference game 9 times.   They are 0-9.
I dont have stats on how teams do coming off a west coast win.  I should get on that.  Id be curious to see if there is a hangover effect.

IND
Monday night division game with a 5.5 home spread is a 50/50 game.  The COlts have way too much future value to take them here.

STL
Wow, people jumping on the bandwagon.  I dont see why this is more than a 50/50 game, but good luck to those who do.

--

Season Recap [Rules- 1 pick through Week 9.  Double Picks thereafter.  Entry 2 is more aggressive]

Entry 1- NYG, PHI, MIN, NYJ, CIN 

Entry 2- ARI, DEN, MIN, NYJ, DET, NYG, SEA

--

	Team	Picks
1	Chiefs	50.7%
2	Cowboys	12.4%
3	Jets	10.3%
4	Patriots	8.7%
5	Colts	5.8%
6	Rams	5.2%
7	Redskins	1.2%
8	Raiders	1.2%

Week 7

BAL
Teams that are big favorites going into their bye have been dominant, and I would expect BAL to be the same. They have 2 games with great future value, but those games are in Weeks 11 and 12 when there are plenty of other games. But, if almost half the league is taking BAL, save them.
(My personal entry used DEN, NYG, NYJ who are big favorites in Week 12, so I need to save them for that week anyway.)

NO
Another big favorite, though I am not sure why they are giving so many points.  They have only played 1 good game so far this year.  Nevertheless, as a survivor play, they are a solid choice, especially with half the entries of BAL.  They have 4 more great games though.  I think thats too much value to be taking them now.

DEN
A surprisingly big favorite this week.  If you need to make double picks at all you will need to take this team either this week or week 12 (home for STL).  I would wait.  The Raiders have been a TD+ underdog in Denver the last 6 years and pulled off wins 3 times.  That would make me really nervous (though I took DEN already).

KC
I still havent seen a line for them, but assuming a 7+ spread, this is a solid pick.  They only have one more 7+ game, next week.  While next week is pretty scarce, there is that Dal-JAC game that has a big line too.  This is my tentative pick right now since I still have DAL for next week.

SEA
This is a very risky game.  Yes, the Seahawks have been great at home, but this game scares me with the coming off a rare road win and ARI coming off a bye.  The Seahawks have almost zero future value, but unless you have used most of the options above, I would stay away.

--

Season Recap [Rules- 1 pick through Week 9.  Double Picks thereafter.  Entry 2 is more aggressive]

Entry 1- NYG, PHI, MIN, NYJ, CIN 

Entry 2- ARI, DEN, MIN, NYJ, DET, NYG

--

Team	Picks
1	Ravens	45.9%
2	Saints	21.9%
3	Broncos	15.8%
4	Chiefs	8.4%
5	Seahawks	4.0%
6	Falcons	1.6%
7	49ers	0.6%
8	Buccaneers	0.4%
9	Steelers	0.4%
10	Cowboys	0.3%
11	Patriots	0.2%
12	Bears	0.1%
13	Titans	0.1%
14	Giants	0.1%
15	Redskins	0.1%
16	Bills	0.1%

Looking Ahead

Team	Week 6	Week 7	Week 8	Week 9	Week 10	Week 11	Week 12	Week 13	Week 14	Week 15	Week 16	Week 17
ATL		-5		-8.5	-1	7	-1	4.5	7	3.5	-3	-9.5
BAL		-17		-9	4	10.5	-13	-3	2.5	-3.5	3.5	-7
BUF									-1.5
CAR
CHI	-7	-3		7	-2.5		-2.5
CIN			-3.5			-10				-4
CLE							-3.5
DAL		-3.5	-7.5			-9.5	-3		-3.5	-3.5	4	1
GB	-6	-5.5		-6				-7	6		-3.5	-7
HOU	-5			-2.5	3		-1					-6
IND	3.5		-6.5	3	-7		-6	-6.5		-9.5	7	-3.5
JAC						-5			-2.5
KC		-6.5	-11			-6.5		-3		1	0	-3
MIA						-2.5	2	-3.5		-10	-6
NE	-2.5		-4.5	7		-2	7	-3	6	-3	9.5	-6
NO	4	-8.5	0	7.5		-11		2.5	-14			-9
NYG	-10.5			6.5	-3	1	-7	-3.5		-3.5
OAK			-4	0						0
PHI	-2.5							-1			-1
PIT	-13	3		3	-4	-11	11		-7.5	-3	-14	7
SD	8	-2.5	-3.5			-7		-9.5	-6.5	7	3	1
SEA		-3.5					0	-4.5				-3.5
SF	-6	3.5	-3.5		-8.5	-6			-6.5		3.5	-4.5
STL			-3.5
TB		-7			-6					-2.5	-3.5
TEN	3	-6			1.5	-3.5		-9	0	-3	3
WAS			3		-3.5		-3		-7		1	-3
7-9.5	2	2	1	4	2	3	2	3	2	2	2	5
10-13.5	2	0	1	0	0	4	2	0	0	1	0	0
14+	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
Division
Conference
Interconference